Appraisal of Land Cover and Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources: A Case Study of Mohmand Dam Catchment, Pakistan

Land cover change (LCC) and climate (CC) impacts on streamflow in high elevated catchments are a great challenge to sustainable management the development of water resources. This study evaluates possible future both land streamflows Mohmand Dam catchment, Pakistan, by utilizing semi-distributed hydrological model known as Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), along with latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset different global models (GCMs). The downscaling precipitation temperature data was performed CMhyd software. downscaled projections from best performing GCM, out four GCMs, under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2 SSP5) conditions were forced calibrated (SWAT model). Compared baseline period (1990–2015), outputs selected GCM indicated an increase average monthly precipitation, maximum minimum area SSP2 SSP5 scenarios, end 21st century. It is expected that for 2016–2100 10.5% 11.4% respectively. Simulated results SWAT showed significant projected changes flows include: (a) overall mean annual flow ranging 13.7% 34.8%, whereas June, July August decreased, (b) shift peak catchment June. concluded can substantially influence seasonality at site. Climate significant, so project planners managers must include CC LCC proposed operational strategy.